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Sunday, February 26, 2012

Understanding Michigan and Arizona Polls

Deseret News has an article up analyzing the polls of likely Republican voters in Michigan and Arizona, both of which have primaries on Tuesday. The whole thing is informative. Here are quotes regarding perceptions of Romney's Mormonism, the general election, and voter satisfaction:

"In sum, both Arizona and Michigan reveal continuing evangelical resistance to Romney, suggesting that the supposed "conservative" distrust of Mitt Romney is hard to disentangle from religious tensions.
The good news for Romney is that just 20 percent of those Michigan voters who doubt Mormons are Christian would consider Romney an "unacceptable" nominee. A matching 20 percent of Michigan evangelicals polled find Romney unacceptable, while only 10 percent of evangelicals in Arizona feel that way — more evidence that familiarity with Mormons reduces prejudice."


"Among likely general election voters in one-on-one matchups against Obama, Romney led the president by nine points, Santorum by five and Paul by three. Gingrich trails Obama by one point. Arizona is a state the Republicans must win in November to prevail nationally."

"Satisfaction with the GOP field remains low. Just 55 percent of likely voters in Michigan and 49 percent in Arizona are happy with the current choices. Even more telling is the enthusiasm gap. Sixty-five percent of Romney voters in Michigan and 61 percent in Arizona are satisfied with the field, but just 41 percent of Santorum's Arizona support is satisfied, and 51 percent in Michigan.
This suggests that Santorum and Gingrich both remain mere placeholders for protest votes against Romney rather than being voter soulmates."


I feel validated in my line of thinking. Any candidate is within striking distance in a matchup against Obama. Most evangelicals are willing to swallow a Mormon if it means no more Obama. And the conservative displeasure is not unified, with less satisfaction and enthusiasm for the perceived 'conservative' candidates than for those supporting Romney. In my book, they've all got differing though comparable strengths and weaknesses for a matchup against Obama. We'll get behind the frontrunner when it's time. No voter should be belittled by other members of the party for choosing one candidate over another. This is democracy, for crying out loud!

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